The future of Iranian oil tanker is uncertain, and the United States threatens to sanction ＂helper＂

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, August 21st (a global hotspot) The future of Iranian oil tankers is uncertain, and the United States threatens to sanction "helpers".

　　Xinhua news agency reporter

　　On the 20th, US Secretary of State Pompeo warned that any party that assists or allows the Iranian oil tanker that has been released by British overseas territory Gibraltar to dock may face US sanctions.

　　Some analysts believe that the tit-for-tat game between the United States and Iran will continue, but the United States may not want to trigger a direct conflict with Iran on the tanker. In addition, there are differences between Europe and the United States and within Europe on the Iran issue, especially on the formation of the so-called "escort alliance".

　　News fact

　　Pompeo told the media on the 20th that the Iranian oil tanker will go to Syria to exchange crude oil for funds to support the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has been listed as a terrorist organization by the United States, and the United States will take all measures to stop it.

　　The original name of this oil tanker is Grace I, which used to fly the Panamanian flag, but now it has changed to fly the Iranian flag and changed its name to Adrian Daria I..

　　According to the data of Luft Company on 18th, the tanker carrying about 2 million barrels of crude oil is heading for the southern Greek port of Calamata.

　　Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif pointed out during his visit to Finland on the 19th that there was no legal basis for the United States to demand the seizure of Iranian oil tankers, but it was politically motivated to "escalate the situation". Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mousavi said on the same day that Iran has issued necessary warnings to the US through official channels, and the wrong decision of the US will lead to "serious consequences".

　　According to a report by Iran’s Tasneem News Agency on the 20th, a person in charge of Iran’s road traffic department said that the British oil tanker "Steiner Empire" was previously detained by the Iraqi side on suspicion of violating international maritime laws and regulations, and the relevant judicial procedures in this case are currently being processed, which has nothing to do with the detention of the Iranian oil tanker.

　　[Depth analysis]

　　Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, said that in order to catch up with the change of government, Britain is facing many problems at this stage, including "Brexit", hoping to avoid excessive distraction on the Middle East issue, and may choose to compromise and reach some kind of agreement with Iran. Europe’s desire to retain the Iranian nuclear deal is real, and its ability to change the status quo is limited. I am afraid that the complicated triangular relationship between Europe, the United States and Iran will continue for a certain period of time.

　　He said that in addition to military strikes, the United States has used political, diplomatic, economic and other means to exert extreme pressure on Iran, as well as a certain degree of military deterrence. Iran still shows no signs of being unable to persist, and there are fewer and fewer policy means available to the United States in the next stage. Although the United States does not want a war with Iran at present, accidental factors, third-party factors and regional forces available to Iran will increase the risk of conflict.

　　Bi Jian, a researcher at the Institute of World History of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that in the next stage, it is unlikely that the United States will use its own military force to forcibly detain Iranian oil tankers. Because it triggers a direct conflict with Iran, it is not conducive to the re-election of US President Trump. Iran still wants to retain the Iranian nuclear deal as much as possible, and will continue the strategy of diplomacy first and resist the extreme pressure of the United States by asymmetric means; At the same time, taking advantage of its own geographical advantages, especially its local military advantages, it conducts military dealings with the United States in the Gulf, "wiping the gun without going off." Therefore, at least until the dust settles in the next US presidential election, the two sides will not let the US-Iran relationship slide out of control.

　　He said that the United States wants to form a so-called "escort alliance", mainly to seek a tool for political queuing and comprehensive blockade of Iran. Joining means supporting the United States’ comprehensive blockade and extreme pressure on Iran, and at the same time putting itself in a dangerous whirlpool. Therefore, big countries will not easily participate, and even if small countries participate, they will only show political gestures.

　　[instant comment]

　　For a month and a half, the settlement of the "ship arrest storm" has been delayed. At present, Britain and Iran finally have a breathing space of "stop loss" and "unwinding".

　　The request for "long-arm jurisdiction" from the United States was rejected by its allies, and the "escort alliance" from the United States was few in Europe, which once again confirmed two points: First, in the face of the Iranian issue, the United States and the European Union are really not on the same boat; Second, when the core interests of the country conflict with the "priority of the United States", even close allies are "really difficult to accompany" the United States.

　　[Background link]

　　On July 4th, the British overseas territory Gibraltar authorities, with the assistance of the British navy, seized the "Grace I" oil tanker loaded with Iranian crude oil, claiming that it was transporting crude oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions. The Iranian side denied this accusation and demanded the immediate release of the detained tanker.

　　On July 19th, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards detained the British oil tanker "Steiner Empire" on suspicion of violating international maritime laws.

　　On August 15th, Grace I was released by the Gibraltar authorities. The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia issued a subpoena on the 16th, seeking to continue to detain Grace I, but it was rejected by the Gibraltar authorities. (Reporter: Dong Yalei, Guo Yang, Hu Guan; Editor: Sun Hao)